If we fine tune WPI numbers taking care of the base effect which came to play from September 2008 onwards, the inflation numbers would be the following:
NW18: Data Poll: India Sep 26 WPI inflation seen 1.04% vs 0.83% week ago NewsWire18, Tuesday, Oct 6 . By Itika Sharma NEW DELHI - India's headline inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price Index is likely to rise to 1.04% in the week ended Sep 26 from 0.83% a week ago, analysts said. In the year ago period, the inflation rate had declined marginally on week to 12.08%. The WPI-based inflation, which remained negative for 13 weeks before turning positive three weeks ago, has been rising mainly on account of a surge in prices of primary articles. The all-commodities index has risen 5.9% since the beginning of the current financial year in March. According to a NewsWire18 poll of 14 analysts, the overall index is seen rising 0.2% in the week ended Sep 26 to 243.8 from 243.3 in the previous week. The index had remained unchanged on week at 241.3 in the corresponding week last year. The commerce and industry ministry is likely to detail WPI inflation on Thursday. High food prices are a result of structural demand-supply imbalances and cyclical factors such as weak monsoon, Reserve Bank of India Governor D. Subbarao said at the Group of 30 international banking seminar in Istanbul on Monday. "Agricultural output is expected to suffer and this could keep upward pressure on food prices in the coming months...While the buffer stock of foodgrains and better supply management could mitigate the adverse effects to an extent, imports are not an easy solution given the requirement," Subbarao said. Analysts see inflation rising over the next few months as the statistical impact of a high base withers and a weak monsoon exerts pressure on prices. In its quarterly review of annual policy statement, the RBI had scaled up its end March inflation forecast to 5% from 4% projected earlier. However, Subbarao had earlier this month said there were signals that India's headline inflation rate will rise above 5.2% by end March. . Summary of the NewsWire18 poll on WPI inflation for week to Sep 26: . * Range of expectations: 0.95% to 1.12% * Mean: 1.03% * Mode: 1.04% * Median: 1.04%. . Inflation rate and the overall index expected by polled entities, in ascending order: . Poll Participant Inflation Corresponding Index (in %) . State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 0.95 243.6 Nomura Securities 0.95 243.6 HDFC Bank 0.99 243.7 Indicus Analytics 0.99 243.7 IDBI Gilts 0.99 243.7 CRISIL 0.99 243.7 YES Bank 1.04 243.8 STCI Primary Dealership 1.04 243.8 Kotak Mahindra Bank 1.04 243.8 Axis Bank 1.04 243.8 Citibank 1.04 243.8 JP Morgan Chase 1.08 243.9 Bank of Baroda 1.12 244.0 Calyon Bank 1.12 244.0 . End . Edited by Madhumita Sen Choudhury
The Data released on Oct/08/2009 for reference period Sep/26/2009 was 0.70. And, found to be more accurate than the market median expectation of 1.04. The revised forecast for next 4 weeks: 03-Oct-09 1.58% : Index: 243.5 10-Oct-09 1.95% : Index: 244.0 17-Oct-09 2.46% : Index: 244.5 24-Oct-09 2.71% : Index: 245.0
NW18: Data Poll: India Oct 3 WPI inflation seen 1.50% vs 0.70% week ago NewsWire18, Wednesday, Oct 14 . By Itika Sharma NEW DELHI - India's headline inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price Index is likely to rise to 1.50% in the week ended Oct 3 from 0.70% a week ago, analysts said. In the year ago period, the inflation rate had declined on week to 11.49%. The WPI-based inflation, which remained negative for 13 weeks before turning positive last month, has been rising mainly on account of a surge in prices of primary articles. The all-commodities index has risen 5.8% since the beginning of the current financial year in March. According to a NewsWire18 poll of 11 analysts, the overall index is seen rising 0.1% in the week ended Oct 3 to 243.3 from 243.0 in the previous week. The index had declined 0.7% on week to 239.7 in the corresponding week last year. The commerce and industry ministry is likely to detail WPI inflation on Thursday. Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla today told NewsWire18 that it is not liquidity but supply side constraints of certain food items, which are fuelling inflationary expectations. "If you don't have enough sugar, if you don't have enough pulses and if you cannot source them from outside or they are not easily available and if there is perception that there is likely to be a decline in food production because of slightly lower rainfall, then inflationary expectations get aroused and fuelled," he said. Analysts see inflation rising over the next few months as the statistical impact of a high base withers and a weak monsoon exerts pressure on prices. In its quarterly review of annual policy statement, the RBI had scaled up its end March inflation forecast to 5% from 4% projected earlier. However, Subbarao had said earlier this month there were signals that India's headline inflation rate will rise above 5.2% by end March. . Summary of the NewsWire18 poll on WPI inflation for week to Oct 3: . * Range of expectations: 1.34% to 1.54% * Mean: 1.46% * Mode: 1.50% * Median: 1.46%. . Inflation rate and the overall index expected by polled entities, in ascending order: . Poll Participant Inflation Corresponding Index (in %) . Indicus Analytics 1.34 242.9 Nomura Securities 1.42 243.1 State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 1.42 243.1 STCI Primary Dealership 1.46 243.2 CRISIL 1.46 243.2 IDBI Gilts 1.46 243.2 JP Morgan Chase 1.50 243.3 Bank of Baroda 1.50 243.3 ICICI Bank 1.50 243.3 BNP Paribas 1.50 243.3 YES Bank 1.54 243.4 . End . Edited by Aabhas Pandya . NewsWire18 Tel +91 (11) 2335-1230 Send comments to feedback@newswire18.com . Copyright NewsWire18 Pvt. Ltd. 2007. All rights reserved.
If we fine tune WPI numbers taking care of the base effect which came to play from September 2008 onwards, the inflation numbers would be the following:
ReplyDelete26-Sep-2009: 0.84%
03-Oct-2009: 1.53%
10-Oct-2009: 1.71%
17-Oct-2009: 2.02%.
We can see from the above, inflation numbers are getting smoothen out.
NW18: Data Poll: India Sep 26 WPI inflation seen 1.04% vs 0.83% week ago
ReplyDeleteNewsWire18, Tuesday, Oct 6
.
By Itika Sharma
NEW DELHI - India's headline inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price
Index is likely to rise to 1.04% in the week ended Sep 26 from 0.83% a week
ago, analysts said.
In the year ago period, the inflation rate had declined marginally on week
to 12.08%.
The WPI-based inflation, which remained negative for 13 weeks before turning positive three weeks ago, has been rising mainly on account of a surge in prices of primary articles.
The all-commodities index has risen 5.9% since the beginning of the current financial year in March.
According to a NewsWire18 poll of 14 analysts, the overall index is seen
rising 0.2% in the week ended Sep 26 to 243.8 from 243.3 in the previous week.
The index had remained unchanged on week at 241.3 in the corresponding
week last year.
The commerce and industry ministry is likely to detail WPI inflation on
Thursday.
High food prices are a result of structural demand-supply imbalances and
cyclical factors such as weak monsoon, Reserve Bank of India Governor D.
Subbarao said at the Group of 30 international banking seminar in Istanbul on
Monday.
"Agricultural output is expected to suffer and this could keep upward
pressure on food prices in the coming months...While the buffer stock of
foodgrains and better supply management could mitigate the adverse effects to
an extent, imports are not an easy solution given the requirement," Subbarao
said.
Analysts see inflation rising over the next few months as the statistical
impact of a high base withers and a weak monsoon exerts pressure on prices.
In its quarterly review of annual policy statement, the RBI had scaled up
its end March inflation forecast to 5% from 4% projected earlier. However,
Subbarao had earlier this month said there were signals that India's headline
inflation rate will rise above 5.2% by end March.
.
Summary of the NewsWire18 poll on WPI inflation for week to Sep 26:
.
* Range of expectations: 0.95% to 1.12%
* Mean: 1.03% * Mode: 1.04% * Median: 1.04%.
.
Inflation rate and the overall index expected by polled entities, in
ascending order:
.
Poll Participant Inflation Corresponding Index
(in %)
.
State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 0.95 243.6
Nomura Securities 0.95 243.6
HDFC Bank 0.99 243.7
Indicus Analytics 0.99 243.7
IDBI Gilts 0.99 243.7
CRISIL 0.99 243.7
YES Bank 1.04 243.8
STCI Primary Dealership 1.04 243.8
Kotak Mahindra Bank 1.04 243.8
Axis Bank 1.04 243.8
Citibank 1.04 243.8
JP Morgan Chase 1.08 243.9
Bank of Baroda 1.12 244.0
Calyon Bank 1.12 244.0
.
End
.
Edited by Madhumita Sen Choudhury
The Data released on Oct/08/2009 for reference period Sep/26/2009 was 0.70. And, found to be more accurate than the market median expectation of 1.04.
ReplyDeleteThe revised forecast for next 4 weeks:
03-Oct-09 1.58% : Index: 243.5
10-Oct-09 1.95% : Index: 244.0
17-Oct-09 2.46% : Index: 244.5
24-Oct-09 2.71% : Index: 245.0
NW18: Data Poll: India Oct 3 WPI inflation seen 1.50% vs 0.70% week ago
ReplyDeleteNewsWire18, Wednesday, Oct 14
.
By Itika Sharma
NEW DELHI - India's headline inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price
Index is likely to rise to 1.50% in the week ended Oct 3 from 0.70% a week
ago, analysts said.
In the year ago period, the inflation rate had declined on week to 11.49%.
The WPI-based inflation, which remained negative for 13 weeks before
turning positive last month, has been rising mainly on account of a surge in
prices of primary articles.
The all-commodities index has risen 5.8% since the beginning of the
current financial year in March.
According to a NewsWire18 poll of 11 analysts, the overall index is seen
rising 0.1% in the week ended Oct 3 to 243.3 from 243.0 in the previous week.
The index had declined 0.7% on week to 239.7 in the corresponding week
last year.
The commerce and industry ministry is likely to detail WPI inflation on
Thursday.
Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla today told NewsWire18 that it is not
liquidity but supply side constraints of certain food items, which are
fuelling inflationary expectations.
"If you don't have enough sugar, if you don't have enough pulses and if
you cannot source them from outside or they are not easily available and if
there is perception that there is likely to be a decline in food production
because of slightly lower rainfall, then inflationary expectations get aroused
and fuelled," he said.
Analysts see inflation rising over the next few months as the statistical
impact of a high base withers and a weak monsoon exerts pressure on prices.
In its quarterly review of annual policy statement, the RBI had scaled up
its end March inflation forecast to 5% from 4% projected earlier. However,
Subbarao had said earlier this month there were signals that India's headline
inflation rate will rise above 5.2% by end March.
.
Summary of the NewsWire18 poll on WPI inflation for week to Oct 3:
.
* Range of expectations: 1.34% to 1.54%
* Mean: 1.46% * Mode: 1.50% * Median: 1.46%.
.
Inflation rate and the overall index expected by polled entities, in
ascending order:
.
Poll Participant Inflation Corresponding Index
(in %)
.
Indicus Analytics 1.34 242.9
Nomura Securities 1.42 243.1
State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 1.42 243.1
STCI Primary Dealership 1.46 243.2
CRISIL 1.46 243.2
IDBI Gilts 1.46 243.2
JP Morgan Chase 1.50 243.3
Bank of Baroda 1.50 243.3
ICICI Bank 1.50 243.3
BNP Paribas 1.50 243.3
YES Bank 1.54 243.4
.
End
.
Edited by Aabhas Pandya
.
NewsWire18 Tel +91 (11) 2335-1230
Send comments to feedback@newswire18.com
.
Copyright NewsWire18 Pvt. Ltd. 2007. All rights reserved.